Congrats on such a strong start in triathlons, that's impressive! I would say to look at how much time you'll have to take off in order to qualify (of course, it differs from race to race and year to year and depends on who shows up), then look at your races so far and see where it would be easiest to pare down your times to qualify. Every age group and race will have a different time you need to be shooting for.

I'm in somewhat the same situation, thinking about trying to qualify in 2011. In my case, I was about an hour off of qualifying time in my 2006 IM (but I had an injury in the race that slowed me down). I can take some time off in transitions, some time off in the bike, probably no time off the swim, and the biggest chunk of time off of my run. So if I want to qualify, the running is the place I need to concentrate my effort on. Also, I can practice and organize my transitions better - I could lose 10 minutes in transitions alone, which is signifigant.

I also think that racing to qualify is different than racing to finish. You make different decisions based on your goals. I know I made decisions in transition and in racing that I would've done differently if I wanted to qualify (like I wouldn't have stood in port-a-potty lines on the bike course, for one!). So I think you need to be meticulous in mental preparation if you are going to try to qualify, and have a plan for various scenarios.

I have a rather long thread about this over at BeginnerTriathlete.com. Here's a link and my initial thoughts as to "what it takes" from my experience and a link to the entire thread. A lot of good information has developed from the conversation.:

http://www.beginnertriathlete.com/discussion/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=86847&posts=215&start=1

To begin, I think many athlete's have the potential to earn a slot through qualifying. What I don't think many understand is how Kona qualifying training differs from IM training. Believe me, they are NOT the same. I began training for IMAZ a full 10 months prior to the event. I hired a coach and established with him that I would go to IMAZ and attempt to qualify for Kona. At that time I had a total of 2 triathlons in total under my belt. I think committing to attempting this level of performance so early was key to my success. We all know that training for Ironman is a MAJOR task. Training for Ironman in an effort to go a specific time is even more so. When I compared my training volume to others who were also preparing for the race, it wasn't so much I was doing more volume or time, although I certainly was way up there. It had more to do with intensity and consistancy.

I tried to maximize every workout. If my session called for a 4 hour ride with my HR between 138-148, I would spend as much time as possible at 147. I would just constantly push, uphill, downhill, flats, just never gave myself a break. I never , not once over the course of 10 months shorted or skipped a session. I completed 100% of the workouts perscribed by my coach and made every one the best quality I could. This was somewhat in contrast to a few other athletes he was coaching, one of whom also had Kona aspirations. They would do group rides or runs, or run on a treadmill or do spin classes in lieu of what they were scheduled to do and I think these substitutions hurt them in the long run. I'm sure they were more fun but they were not as effective and the results showed up on race day as I was the only one who perfromed exactly as planned. Training for Ironman should be as lonely as the race itself.

When you get to your qualifying race, you should already know if a Kona qualifying time is within your reach. IM is raced at those very same HR and intensity levels you did 100% of your base training, so you should be able to predict your time with a great deal of accuracy. If you are riding your 100 mile rides at 19 mph, don't think a sub 5:30 is all of a sudden going to pop out. It's not. If your long runs are at a 8:30 pace, kiss the 3:30 goodbye. THIS IS THE HARSH REALITY. In order to get to Hawaii, on average you need to go about 1 hour on the swim, sub 5:30 on the bike and at the least be able to run a sub 4 hour marathon. Anything less and you will be lucky by circumstance, not by training. Depending on your AG, you are looking at sun 10:30 as a squeeker, sub 10 as a shoe in, you decide.

The bottom line is, don't kid yourself, denial is not a river in Egypt. Going to the big show is a different animal all together. The sacrifices are beyond what you may have done before. Coaching IS ESSENTIAL. If you are out there banging out those 20-21mph long rides, running those 7:30 long run, swimming 100's on the 1:30's consistantly, you may may very well have what it takes.

Thanks, Libor, here are some comments I made in the post:

I feel being properly coached is a key component. Yes, there will be athletes who no matter how hard they work will come up short due to limitations of their bodies themselves, not their effort or desire.

One of the points I wanted to stress is that it's important to try and know our potential as much as it is our limitations. I know many triathletes locally who aspire to go to Hawaii but are constatntly dissapointed when they fail to make it and yet their failure was already built into their preperation. Sometimes the volume was there but the pace was not or for others, the pace was great but the aerobic engine wasn't built up enough. The key to qualifying is handed to an athlete who starts their IM race with all components in place, they just need to execute and unlock the door. Due to the nature of qualifying, obviously, it all comes down to a finishing time and the ability to hold the pace to achieve that time. It's pretty easy math, don't get lost in the thrill of big training and forget the math. Speed and pace are cruel and being able to run 5 miles after a 100 mile bike is awesome, but if you are not achieving the required pace nothing will change that come race day.

I came from a running background and had run a 3:30 Marathon early in Jan. '06. I just started to bike then as well. I quickly picked up cycling and was doing aerobic 30-75 mile rides at 21mph. My run times got slower as I was training with a HR monitor and it was summer here in AZ, so I was in the the mid 7's for the first few months of base training.

He learned from his dog! The "Kona" swim

I was a swim team brat as a kid. I was able to swim 1:30-1:35 100's when I began.