Realistic Ironman Goal Time
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Tin_Man posted 48 weeks ago.
Greetings. This is my first post here. Before my first Ironman, someone told me to double my most recent HIM and add another hour. It predicted my first Ironman time to within a couple of minutes. As long as you have no idea, that might give you a starting point. For you, perhaps something between 10 and 11 hours? By the way, I did Louisville a couple of weeks ago. The course turned out to be tougher than I thought, but it sure was beautiful.
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jasonm posted 48 weeks ago.
Very very hard to give a time, so many variables such as the training you do from now on, your background, pacing strategies, nutrition, weather conditions, the way you race your HIM races etc.
Based on your HIM times other athletes have achieve IM times between about 9:45-13:00. Big range.
My suggestion, put in the training, and as you get close to the big day use your training paces as a guide to the IM.
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RV posted 48 weeks ago.
Rules of thumb that I have heard is your HIM time x 2 plus 1-2 hours... So many variables...
RV
It takes a long time to get good. - Scott Molina
Slow is smooth; smooth is fast. - Rich Strauss
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bluebirdbiker posted 48 weeks ago.
jasonm said it at the start, too many variables, Best to have NO expectations but to set yourself up for the last 10k of the race. All else is done at the pace you have been training at. So, learn from the times you do in training for the event and set up for the last 10k, then, let 'er rip with what ever you have left. Remember, swim is quite predictable, as in training one can see what an OW swim is for 2.4m. On the bike you basically go at Z2 to 5bpm into Z3. Run is basically Z1 and Z2. And Z3 max. by 3/4 of the run (at least that is the way we should run it). Then at the end give what ever you have left. Knowing this, you can predict what the finish time is for you.
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Ironmom posted 48 weeks ago.
I agree with the rule of thumb I've heard (best half-Iron time, double that and add an hour). Also Ironman is one big long day and so many things can go wrong. Things that you could deal with for a shorter period of time can become critical in the longer hours of an Ironman. For me, I figured out my "best case scenario" time, and then figured that anything that happened to me would come on top of that.
As it turned out, we had a rough swim (that added +6 minutes to my estimated swim time). Because of the rough swim, someone grabbed my foot and dislocated my toe (+5 minutes in transition as I tried to bandage it). It was very very cold, so I changed clothes completely in transition (+5), I took it easy on the bike as my toe swelled (+10), I made an unprecendented 6 porta-potty stops because of swallowing so much seawater in the rough swim (+10 minutes), I rebandaged toe in T2 (+5), and of course, I limped the entire marathon (+30 from my est. time), for a total of 61 added minutes. And I was almost exactly an hour from the time I thought I could do in the best of all circumstances.
I'm sure most people could tell you very similar things about their Ironman day. What you can do in the best of all worlds *might* be the time you end up with. Then again, it might not. If I hadn't had the windy cold weather and rough wavy seas, none of what happened to me might have happened. Then again, something else might have happened! It's best in my opinion to go in with a ballpark time in mind, be flexible about what happens to you in the day and really enjoy yourself, then to get fixated on a time and upset when you blow past it.
Blue Skies, -Robin-
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Iron Dan posted 48 weeks ago.
Ironmom, you are alot tougher than I am. A dislocated toe would have been the end of my day. I give you considerable props for being able to finish with that much pain.
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wesmeyer11 posted 48 weeks ago.
You can go a little over 10 probably, maybe sub 10 if you train well and have a good race.
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CarlyBoy posted 48 weeks ago.
The double plus one is a good start. Something that can throw this off is insufficient long distance training. You can be really fast in a HIM but if you haven't put in enough or any long stuff you will suffer and slow in an IM. Guess that's what the plus one is for but I ended up half an hour on top of the one.
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Anton posted 48 weeks ago.
wesmeyer11;79670 wrote:
You can go a little over 10 probably, maybe sub 10 if you train well and have a good race.
And that's the rub...if you train well and have a good race. As others have said, there are far too many variables,especially one's you can't control. My philosophy has always been (a la Triple B) to go with no expectations...to let the day unfold as it will...sometimes it's good and other times, like this years IMLP for me...not so much.
Train smart and get to the starting line in one piece with no major injuries, have great weather, nail your nutrition, don't have any mechanical problems etc,etc...and the HIM time plus 1 to2 hours may hold true...good luck and welcome!
"What would life be if we had no courage to attempt anything?" - Vincent Van Gogh
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Sandman posted 48 weeks ago.
Anton;79672 wrote:
And that's the rub...if you train well and have a good race. As others have said, there are far too many variables,especially one's you can't control. My philosophy has always been (a la Triple B) to go with no expectations...to let the day unfold as it will...sometimes it's good and other times, like this years IMLP for me...not so much.
Train smart and get to the starting line in one piece with no major injuries, have great weather, nail your nutrition, don't have any mechanical problems etc,etc...and the HIM time plus 1 to2 hours may hold true...good luck and welcome!
Well said. My thoughts exactly. You will have an idea what kind of time you can do by your simulation training but only use it for a pacing parameter. Get off the bike feeling great and use that 1:30 half marathon running speed you have to pick off those who shattered themselves.
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JohnieTri posted 48 weeks ago.
The HIM x 2 + 1-2hr was spot on for me. However, good quality training was not something I practiced very well. What you should probably do is write down a goal range of a couple hours, then ball the paper up and throw it in the trash. Too many things can go wrong. Now, for the sake of predicting a time for you, if the race goes well for you and your training is good, you can go sub-11. Unfortunately from what you said about biking being your weakness, it is a tough bike course. Get out there and ride. Good luck in KY!
-Johnie
I've been doing Half-Ironman events for the last three years. This was after a 10yr., break from serious training. I'm registered for a Ironman Louisville next summer, and I just don't know what to shoot for in terms of a goal time. My Half Ironman times are around the 4:30 -4:50 range. In my races I'm a consistent 27min swimmer, and a 1:30 runner, my bike varies big time, it is my weakness. So I just don't know what to shoot for, since a 1/2 is a whole different beast from a full. Any ideas for a goal time?