Forecasting Race times from Practice?
257
Member
879 days
fittycent posted 1 year ago.
Very good question - that's something I'd like to estimate with greater accuracy also.
All I can say for sure is that I race MUCH faster than I train - adrenaline and a taper easily compensate for the longer distance.
One concrete example I can give is that I was doing 8:30-9:00 pace on my long runs (12 miles max) leading up to my first half marathon. I ripped off a 6:38 average on race day, finishing with fairly fresh legs, having paced myself (in retrospect) quite conservatively.
After your HIM you should follow up with us and report how your race pace compares to your estimates.
771
Member
1307 days
Jstyle posted 1 year ago.
Fitty oh my god that is stupidly fast period much less compared to your normal times.
2729
Member
1282 days
Anton posted 1 year ago.
Fitty is spot on...your long runs should be 1.5 to 2 minutes slower than your race pace. Fast comes from speed work and tempo runs NOT long runs....
Be cautious here solidad...there are many different opinions as to predicting race speed...most of them work well. You have to realize anything can happen on race day..from going out too fast to dropping a water bottle...that can through your time prediction off.
Everyone suffers from goal inflation at some point. I have a plan and a time range, but at the start line I let go of all my expectations and just race...I am never disappointed. You learn over time that there are too many things you can't control that will have a bearing on your race...
"What would life be if we had no courage to attempt anything?" - Vincent Van Gogh
My Blog: http://anton.trifuel.net
169
Member
661 days
solidad posted 1 year ago.
Great advice Anton. I am just soooo competitive that I can't get my mind off it. I am, actually more focused this year on the sprint/Oly point series where I am 6th in age group right now. This HIM was a "can I do it". BUT, as I said as my training came on, I kept pushing my expectations. Started saying I want to break 5:30, then 5:15, now I think I am on track for close to 5:05 ...... you are right though, on race day, I just want to have a great race and have fun. Save the competitive thoughts for the sprints....
I know I am probably over thinking this, but when you are trying to forecast how you'll do on race day, what kind of premium do you put on race day speed? Adrenaline is up, you have tapered and peaked, maybe different equipment?
I pre-road and ran my HIM course this weekend. Did the full bike and 1 loop of the run (6.2 miles). Was not completely pleased with my results. This was a heavy week with 13 hours of training and the last week of a build cycle. I also did not have my aero wheels or aero helmet with me. Then again, I didn't do it after a swim either.
My nutrition practice was great, I feel like this is really getting dialed in. Needed a little more hydration on the run (used a fuel belt, but dumped half over my head -- it was pretty hot, but with aid stations I should be fine.)
So anyway, would you assume faster times on race day and if so any estimates on how much better??