2:51 i hope lance trimmed down

i'm hoping he breaks 3hours, but i'm skeptical....even the most talented athlete in the world cannot go out and dominate in a marathon, but then again, they said no one could win 7 TDF either

you're in allentown? i'm from east stroudsburg but my long rides take me into allentown/bethlehem all summer...did you do the Gap Gallop Century a few weeks ago?

He has a great cardio base but he is not training with running as intensly as he had trained for cycling. His joints are also not used to the impact of running either.

I would like to see him do well but I think the last 10 miles are going to hurt him. I think he might have a great 1st 1/2 marathon and slow down for the second 1/2.

just my $.02:D

My guess is 3 hours too. Running is just too different from cycling for all those skills to transfer over.

That said, he has that insane VO2max, so who knows...

This marathon is just a minor distraction for Lance until he takes on Ironman!

Ok...I'm in for 3:00. Top third of his AG. I wish him a good finish.
Ironman? In RW article he says "No Way." He'd do xterra if he came back. He has shown a history of doing what he says and saying what he does,so I'll have to take him at his word on IM.

In the RW interview, he is told that one of his cycling rivals ran around a 2:55. Therefore, my guess is 2:54:58.

I'll put my vote in for 2h 56min. But that could very a lot depending on how much of a crowd gathers around him and slows Lance down.

As for a triathlon; everything points to "no". I have seen a couple of articals that he says that isn't even an option for him.

I'm going with anything under 2:55 so he beats jalabert's time last year.

2h:45min. I think he will be hurting at the end like beads1985 said, but I think he will push through it- he's Lance!
I like your prediction for the race, gfd. that is probably in the back of his mind.
I think depending on how he enjoys running and how his body responds to it within the next few years, he will try an Ironman. He was a triathlete first- why not end with your roots?

I think 2:47:39 !

[QUOTE=trithis04;55397]He said himself that he has not taken this (the training) very seriously, whatever that means.

Maybe, it means living with a know drug user and spending free time trying to coach him in the sport of cycling.

Either way, when it's crunch time this guy usually pulls through, should be interesting.[/QUOTE]

are you dissing Lance's Man Love ?? come on dude.

[QUOTE=christri25;55429]are you dissing Lance's Man Love ?? come on dude.[/QUOTE]

Sounds like an ambiguous porn title :D

beads didn't predict a time, but I'll say he's in for a surprise.

My prediction (and I hope I'm wrong) he pulls up lame after 18 miles and DNFs.

PoC
hey! Easy on the stone throwing!

[QUOTE=PrinceofClydes;55434]beads didn't predict a time, but I'll say he's in for a surprise.

My prediction (and I hope I'm wrong) he pulls up lame after 18 miles and DNFs.

PoC
hey! Easy on the stone throwing![/QUOTE]

I'll go with about a 3:30

I agree he is in for a surprise. I don't think he will DNF but he will have a tough time on the back end.

He is a stuborn guy and he is not one to quit

My opinion...
I am a little disapointed that he has not taken this seriously...
I know that he is tired of all the preasure of trainning and racing at pro level in cycling, but I wish he put some more interest...
He parties, drink margaritas and stuff more than trainning...
I don´t think he will pull an under 3 hours marathon, and also a DNF is going to be a posibility....

Lance is/was an amazing cyclist and that is because he was so dedicated to his training.

He does have a great cardio base and fitness base.
But as his body might say " waht have you done lately?"

He has not taken his marathon training as seriously as his cycling.
He is obviously enjoying his cycling retirement,
and is doing the NYC marathon to promote his charity.

It should be interesting to see what happens on Sunday,
because we all know, "anything can happen on race day!":D

Lance DNF? No way. He is too competitive for that. His head will just tell his legs to go and they will. I believe that he often indicated that he was ill, or his breaks were rubbing etc during the TdF. He probably doesn't realize that Jan isn't running and that he doesn't need to play mind games! I think I posted a swag on his time awhile back, but he'll definitely go under 3:00 - I'll say 2:48.

Mark Allen, a noted sub-3-hour marathoner at IMKona
entered the USA Olympic marathon trial and pulled a quad after 21k.

He DNFed.

PoC

I'm guessing either a 2:49 and change or somewhere in the 3:20's (if I can get away with two votes)

put me in for 2:47...

jeff

3:25

He won't DNF. He said himself, he's a middle of the pack runner. We'll know in three days....

is it televised live?

From Lance's RW interview I got the idea that for him running about 3:00 IS not taking it seriously. I don't think his ego will let him do too badly. He is probably down playing his training while planning on a good performance.

[QUOTE=tri-ac;55507]is it televised live?[/QUOTE]

I was on the NYCM website and it said something about being shown live online.

[url]www.nycmarathon.org[/url]

[url]http://sports.yahoo.com/sa/news?slug=ap-nycmarathon-lancefriends&prov=ap...

well, i guess this puts to rest the possibility that he wasn't taking his training seriously... hmmm.

then again, he used pacing in the TdF, why not the mary. that wouldn't be allowed at Ironman though...

[url]http://www.velonews.com/news/fea/11138.0.html[/url]

I guess we'll see on Sunday. If he says he can run 3 hours, he probably can.

[QUOTE=toni;55500]3:25
[/QUOTE]

Are we playing "Price is Right" rules?

I guess $1 (or 1 minute in this case).

then I'm at $2/2 mins. :p ;)

Curious... I know he is running for cancer $$/good cause/etc... but so are some other runners out there. Does anyone find it a bit odd that he is being allowed a special pacing team? Not a pacer with the race organization that does the whole thing with him, not someone else who will do the whole race keeping him on pace, but people who will only be running part of the race.

It just strikes me as odd that in an age when people are so anti-bandits, and complain about the number of people already out there, and about how rules should be consistent and "fair" that pacers are being allowed for parts of the race for him.

[QUOTE=kyillee;55603]Curious... I know he is running for cancer $$/good cause/etc... but so are some other runners out there. Does anyone find it a bit odd that he is being allowed a special pacing team? Not a pacer with the race organization that does the whole thing with him, not someone else who will do the whole race keeping him on pace, but people who will only be running part of the race.

It just strikes me as odd that in an age when people are so anti-bandits, and complain about the number of people already out there, and about how rules should be consistent and "fair" that pacers are being allowed for parts of the race for him.[/QUOTE]

Celebrity trumps decorum. It's a just business move for the marathon to encourage more press. If any one of us could bring this kind of attention to the race, we'd get famous pacers too. Then there's nepotism: I'm sure his Nike relationship made it easy to run with Salazar, too... If Salazar was a colleague/friend, I'd have him help me do a marathon, too...

Yeah I know those reasons... I wasn't very clear in my original post on this. I think I was more wondering if anyone was bothered by it, especially in a sport where we love that we get to race on the same footing as the pros. They get different entries and sometimes a slightly different start time, but AG'ers are on the same course and with (almost) the same rules.

[QUOTE=kyillee;55611]Yeah I know those reasons... I wasn't very clear in my original post on this. I think I was more wondering if anyone was bothered by it, especially in a sport where we love that we get to race on the same footing as the pros. They get different entries and sometimes a slightly different start time, but AG'ers are on the same course and with (almost) the same rules.[/QUOTE]

i kind of am ... running is not a team sport ! Maybe that is his crutch .... but never mind that ... Lance has a serious case of man love with his BFF ..... lets talk about that.

[QUOTE=kyillee;55611]Yeah I know those reasons... I wasn't very clear in my original post on this. I think I was more wondering if anyone was bothered by it, especially in a sport where we love that we get to race on the same footing as the pros. They get different entries and sometimes a slightly different start time, but AG'ers are on the same course and with (almost) the same rules.[/QUOTE]

I understand you completely. Running and triathlon are supposed to be sports that tests the individual and this doesn't seem to be the case here.

Apparently his celebrity does trump decorum :(

[QUOTE=beads1985;55615]

Apparently his celebrity does trump decorum :([/QUOTE]

There will be no Lance jabs here .... Please look away. ;)

Does Lance Still Shave Those Legs ?

[QUOTE=christri25;55620]Does Lance Still Shave Those Legs ?[/QUOTE]

I believe that would be
'A Question for the Trifuel Women' :D

There are pacers at most marathons anyway. He still has to run at that pace, so don't see it as a big deal. He doesn't do anything negative to hurt or hinder the sport, rather raises awareness for his cause and the race itself.

Decent interview with ESPN:
[url]http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/cycling/columns/story?id=2646120&lpos=spot...
4:51, not a bad mile time...gonna hurt after 16 miles...

Just a comment....

Don't believe everything you read or listen in the news.

I can almost bet Lance will do a great time.

It's easier to say "i did not train seriusly" and have a great race than to do it the other way around. Lance is Lance!!!!

You'll see on Sunday!

But what I realy whant to see is Lance doing an IM.
And quoting him : "There's still time on the bike, in the gym, in the pool, a whole mix of cross training."

We've seen Olympic Gold medalists in swimming at IM distance - as rabbits. (as [I]untouchable[/I] rabbits, mind.)
We've seen Udo Boltz and Steve Larsen at IM - from pro cycling.
and we'd really loooovve to see a TdF winner ride an IM at or near his prime.
I doubt if there is a world class marathoner that could do IM. They'd all drown or cramp out on the bike as they have no quads.
So lance is our next best bet for a wonderful surprise watching a pro in a cross-over sport.
Go, Lance!

PoC

The ESPN interview is the first time I have heard him say that triathlon might be an option. It seems his biggest concern with the marathon is time available for training due to travel and other time committments. Maybe a tri would be possible if his schedule changes. I hope he does it. I also hope to see him near the finish tomorrow.

[QUOTE=PrinceofClydes;55643]We've seen Olympic Gold medalists in swimming at IM distance - as rabbits. (as [I]untouchable[/I] rabbits, mind.)
We've seen Udo Boltz and Steve Larsen at IM - from pro cycling.
and we'd really loooovve to see a TdF winner ride an IM at or near his prime.
I doubt if there is a world class marathoner that could do IM. They'd all drown or cramp out on the bike as they have no quads.
So lance is our next best bet for a wonderful surprise watching a pro in a cross-over sport.
Go, Lance!

PoC[/QUOTE]

So what you're saying is only Pro Cyclists can compete at IM. You're assuming an awful lot there dude...

[QUOTE=jdav0520;55665]So what you're saying is only Pro Cyclists can compete at IM. You're assuming an awful lot there dude...[/QUOTE]
no i think he was saying that a pro marathon runner would have trouble at IM .... i agree.

Hm, yeah, you're probably right, because i'm sure no pro marathoner has ever been in a pool or on a bike.

Lance in at @ 2:59:35, 1:28:57 half; negative split on the 2nd half, sort of.

That's a pretty good day.

He had a great day if the type of training plan he says he followed was true. The second half of the sourse is hillier than the first.

I ran into Lance and his group at mile 2 and was within 5 seconds of him through mile 16, when I started having some issues and had to slow a little. He was getting an awesome reception from the crowd. He also had to deal with some nasty exhaust from the camera bike and the police motorcycle escort. For the most part runners left him and his group alone, but a few yelled things and tried to get on camera. No incidents to speak of though. Perfect weather to run a marathon in.