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Lance's Marathon Time?

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started by trithis04 on October 31, 2006

Anybody care to take a stab at Lance's time in the upcoming NY marathon?

I'm going with somewhere around 3:00:00 give or take.

[FONT=Impact]-Jason
"Fatigue will make cowards of us all!"

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christri25 posted 1 year ago.

2:51 i hope lance trimmed down

Chris

``It's not as if I'm going to sit around and be a fat slob,''
Lance Armstrong 2005

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levels1069 posted 1 year ago.

i'm hoping he breaks 3hours, but i'm skeptical....even the most talented athlete in the world cannot go out and dominate in a marathon, but then again, they said no one could win 7 TDF either

you're in allentown? i'm from east stroudsburg but my long rides take me into allentown/bethlehem all summer...did you do the Gap Gallop Century a few weeks ago?

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beads1985 posted 1 year ago.

He has a great cardio base but he is not training with running as intensly as he had trained for cycling. His joints are also not used to the impact of running either.

I would like to see him do well but I think the last 10 miles are going to hurt him. I think he might have a great 1st 1/2 marathon and slow down for the second 1/2.

just my $.02:D

Nothing to it, but to do it

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Atropos posted 1 year ago.

My guess is 3 hours too. Running is just too different from cycling for all those skills to transfer over.

That said, he has that insane VO2max, so who knows...

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mdd posted 1 year ago.

This marathon is just a minor distraction for Lance until he takes on Ironman!

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Anton posted 1 year ago.

Ok...I'm in for 3:00. Top third of his AG. I wish him a good finish.
Ironman? In RW article he says "No Way." He'd do xterra if he came back. He has shown a history of doing what he says and saying what he does,so I'll have to take him at his word on IM.

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gfd posted 1 year ago.

In the RW interview, he is told that one of his cycling rivals ran around a 2:55. Therefore, my guess is 2:54:58.

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musky48in posted 1 year ago.

I'll put my vote in for 2h 56min. But that could very a lot depending on how much of a crowd gathers around him and slows Lance down.

As for a triathlon; everything points to "no". I have seen a couple of articals that he says that isn't even an option for him.

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magicno5 posted 1 year ago.

I'm going with anything under 2:55 so he beats jalabert's time last year.

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I du tri posted 1 year ago.

2h:45min. I think he will be hurting at the end like beads1985 said, but I think he will push through it- he's Lance!
I like your prediction for the race, gfd. that is probably in the back of his mind.
I think depending on how he enjoys running and how his body responds to it within the next few years, he will try an Ironman. He was a triathlete first- why not end with your roots?

"Do just once what others say you can't do, and you will never pay attention to their limitations again."

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trithis04 posted 1 year ago.

He said himself that he has not taken this (the training) very seriously, whatever that means.

Maybe, it means living with a know drug user and spending free time trying to coach him in the sport of cycling.

Either way, when it's crunch time this guy usually pulls through, should be interesting.

[FONT=Impact]-Jason
"Fatigue will make cowards of us all!"

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JohnieTri posted 1 year ago.

I think 2:47:39 !

-Johnie

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christri25 posted 1 year ago.

trithis04;55397 wrote:
He said himself that he has not taken this (the training) very seriously, whatever that means.

Maybe, it means living with a know drug user and spending free time trying to coach him in the sport of cycling.

Either way, when it's crunch time this guy usually pulls through, should be interesting.

are you dissing Lance's Man Love ?? come on dude.

Chris

``It's not as if I'm going to sit around and be a fat slob,''
Lance Armstrong 2005

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beads1985 posted 1 year ago.

christri25;55429 wrote:
are you dissing Lance's Man Love ?? come on dude.

Sounds like an ambiguous porn title :D

Nothing to it, but to do it

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PrinceofClydes posted 1 year ago.

beads didn't predict a time, but I'll say he's in for a surprise.

My prediction (and I hope I'm wrong) he pulls up lame after 18 miles and DNFs.

PoC
hey! Easy on the stone throwing!

"Pain doesn't last, chicks dig scars, glory is forever!"
- Shane Falco.

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beads1985 posted 1 year ago.

PrinceofClydes;55434 wrote:
beads didn't predict a time, but I'll say he's in for a surprise.

My prediction (and I hope I'm wrong) he pulls up lame after 18 miles and DNFs.

PoC
hey! Easy on the stone throwing!

I'll go with about a 3:30

I agree he is in for a surprise. I don't think he will DNF but he will have a tough time on the back end.

He is a stuborn guy and he is not one to quit

Nothing to it, but to do it

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dr_rios_ec posted 1 year ago.

My opinion...
I am a little disapointed that he has not taken this seriously...
I know that he is tired of all the preasure of trainning and racing at pro level in cycling, but I wish he put some more interest...
He parties, drink margaritas and stuff more than trainning...
I don´t think he will pull an under 3 hours marathon, and also a DNF is going to be a posibility....

-Santiago
"Man!! Defeat is worse than dying, cause´you have to live with it" -My Dad
"It ain´t about how hard you can hit...it is how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward"-Rocky Balboa

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beads1985 posted 1 year ago.

Lance is/was an amazing cyclist and that is because he was so dedicated to his training.

He does have a great cardio base and fitness base.
But as his body might say " waht have you done lately?"

He has not taken his marathon training as seriously as his cycling.
He is obviously enjoying his cycling retirement,
and is doing the NYC marathon to promote his charity.

It should be interesting to see what happens on Sunday,
because we all know, "anything can happen on race day!":D

Nothing to it, but to do it

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RV posted 1 year ago.

Lance DNF? No way. He is too competitive for that. His head will just tell his legs to go and they will. I believe that he often indicated that he was ill, or his breaks were rubbing etc during the TdF. He probably doesn't realize that Jan isn't running and that he doesn't need to play mind games! I think I posted a swag on his time awhile back, but he'll definitely go under 3:00 - I'll say 2:48.

RV

It takes a long time to get good. - Scott Molina
Slow is smooth; smooth is fast. - Rich Strauss

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PrinceofClydes posted 1 year ago.

Mark Allen, a noted sub-3-hour marathoner at IMKona
entered the USA Olympic marathon trial and pulled a quad after 21k.

He DNFed.

PoC

"Pain doesn't last, chicks dig scars, glory is forever!"
- Shane Falco.

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jmruns430 posted 1 year ago.

I'm guessing either a 2:49 and change or somewhere in the 3:20's (if I can get away with two votes)

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Sipperphoto posted 1 year ago.

put me in for 2:47...

jeff

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toni posted 1 year ago.

3:25

He won't DNF. He said himself, he's a middle of the pack runner. We'll know in three days....

-Toni
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tri-ac posted 1 year ago.

is it televised live?

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trithis04 posted 1 year ago.

levels1069;55380 wrote:
you're in allentown? i'm from east stroudsburg but my long rides take me into allentown/bethlehem all summer...did you do the Gap Gallop Century a few weeks ago?

Yup, at least for the time being. I did not do the ride. I've taken a short break from cycling after my last IM race at the end of Sept. while getting ready to run the Philadelphia marathon.

My goal is to make sure I'm in good (running) shape, so that I'm sure to beat Lance's marathon time! HA!

[FONT=Impact]-Jason
"Fatigue will make cowards of us all!"

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GogglesPizanto posted 1 year ago.

From Lance's RW interview I got the idea that for him running about 3:00 IS not taking it seriously. I don't think his ego will let him do too badly. He is probably down playing his training while planning on a good performance.

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Because sooner or later the man that wins
Is the man that thinks he can.

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toni posted 1 year ago.

tri-ac;55507 wrote:
is it televised live?

I was on the NYCM website and it said something about being shown live online.

nycmarathon.org

-Toni
The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. - FDR

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toni posted 1 year ago.

http://sports.yahoo.com/sa/news?slug=ap-nycmarathon-lancefriends&prov=ap&type=lgns

well, i guess this puts to rest the possibility that he wasn't taking his training seriously... hmmm.

then again, he used pacing in the TdF, why not the mary. that wouldn't be allowed at Ironman though...

-Toni
The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. - FDR

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trithis04 posted 1 year ago.

toni;55580 wrote:
well, i guess this puts to rest the possibility that he wasn't taking his training seriously... hmmm.

then again, he used pacing in the TdF, why not the mary. that wouldn't be allowed at Ironman though...

It seems Lance is having a hard time leaving his cycling day behind. I'm really suprised he decided to use pacers. I really thought, based on his competitive nature, he would want to go after this on his own. Not that there won't be mobs of runners hangin' around his position anyway.

[FONT=Impact]-Jason
"Fatigue will make cowards of us all!"

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catwood posted 1 year ago.

http://www.velonews.com/news/fea/11138.0.html

I guess we'll see on Sunday. If he says he can run 3 hours, he probably can.

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rcortesi posted 1 year ago.

toni;55500 wrote:
3:25

Are we playing "Price is Right" rules?

I guess $1 (or 1 minute in this case).

--
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Inside a dog it is too dark to read."
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toni posted 1 year ago.

then I'm at $2/2 mins. :p ;)

-Toni
The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. - FDR

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kylie posted 1 year ago.

Curious... I know he is running for cancer $$/good cause/etc... but so are some other runners out there. Does anyone find it a bit odd that he is being allowed a special pacing team? Not a pacer with the race organization that does the whole thing with him, not someone else who will do the whole race keeping him on pace, but people who will only be running part of the race.

It just strikes me as odd that in an age when people are so anti-bandits, and complain about the number of people already out there, and about how rules should be consistent and "fair" that pacers are being allowed for parts of the race for him.

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tri-ac posted 1 year ago.

kyillee;55603 wrote:
Curious... I know he is running for cancer $$/good cause/etc... but so are some other runners out there. Does anyone find it a bit odd that he is being allowed a special pacing team? Not a pacer with the race organization that does the whole thing with him, not someone else who will do the whole race keeping him on pace, but people who will only be running part of the race.

It just strikes me as odd that in an age when people are so anti-bandits, and complain about the number of people already out there, and about how rules should be consistent and "fair" that pacers are being allowed for parts of the race for him.

Celebrity trumps decorum. It's a just business move for the marathon to encourage more press. If any one of us could bring this kind of attention to the race, we'd get famous pacers too. Then there's nepotism: I'm sure his Nike relationship made it easy to run with Salazar, too... If Salazar was a colleague/friend, I'd have him help me do a marathon, too...

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kylie posted 1 year ago.

Yeah I know those reasons... I wasn't very clear in my original post on this. I think I was more wondering if anyone was bothered by it, especially in a sport where we love that we get to race on the same footing as the pros. They get different entries and sometimes a slightly different start time, but AG'ers are on the same course and with (almost) the same rules.

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christri25 posted 1 year ago.

kyillee;55611 wrote:
Yeah I know those reasons... I wasn't very clear in my original post on this. I think I was more wondering if anyone was bothered by it, especially in a sport where we love that we get to race on the same footing as the pros. They get different entries and sometimes a slightly different start time, but AG'ers are on the same course and with (almost) the same rules.

i kind of am ... running is not a team sport ! Maybe that is his crutch .... but never mind that ... Lance has a serious case of man love with his BFF ..... lets talk about that.

Chris

``It's not as if I'm going to sit around and be a fat slob,''
Lance Armstrong 2005

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beads1985 posted 1 year ago.

kyillee;55611 wrote:
Yeah I know those reasons... I wasn't very clear in my original post on this. I think I was more wondering if anyone was bothered by it, especially in a sport where we love that we get to race on the same footing as the pros. They get different entries and sometimes a slightly different start time, but AG'ers are on the same course and with (almost) the same rules.

I understand you completely. Running and triathlon are supposed to be sports that tests the individual and this doesn't seem to be the case here.

Apparently his celebrity does trump decorum :(

Nothing to it, but to do it

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christri25 posted 1 year ago.

beads1985;55615 wrote:

Apparently his celebrity does trump decorum :(

There will be no Lance jabs here .... Please look away. ;)

Chris

``It's not as if I'm going to sit around and be a fat slob,''
Lance Armstrong 2005

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christri25 posted 1 year ago.

Does Lance Still Shave Those Legs ?

Chris

``It's not as if I'm going to sit around and be a fat slob,''
Lance Armstrong 2005

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beads1985 posted 1 year ago.

christri25;55620 wrote:
Does Lance Still Shave Those Legs ?

I believe that would be
'A Question for the Trifuel Women' :D

Nothing to it, but to do it

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RV posted 1 year ago.

There are pacers at most marathons anyway. He still has to run at that pace, so don't see it as a big deal. He doesn't do anything negative to hurt or hinder the sport, rather raises awareness for his cause and the race itself.

RV

It takes a long time to get good. - Scott Molina
Slow is smooth; smooth is fast. - Rich Strauss

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jdav0520 posted 1 year ago.

Decent interview with ESPN:
http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/cycling/columns/story?id=2646120&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos2
4:51, not a bad mile time...gonna hurt after 16 miles...

"The faster you run, the quicker you'll be done."

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Tikal Dog posted 1 year ago.

Just a comment....

Don't believe everything you read or listen in the news.

I can almost bet Lance will do a great time.

It's easier to say "i did not train seriusly" and have a great race than to do it the other way around. Lance is Lance!!!!

You'll see on Sunday!

But what I realy whant to see is Lance doing an IM.
And quoting him : "There's still time on the bike, in the gym, in the pool, a whole mix of cross training."

Hyperactive Trifueler!!!! (I refuse to let the status go :p)

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PrinceofClydes posted 1 year ago.

We've seen Olympic Gold medalists in swimming at IM distance - as rabbits. (as untouchable rabbits, mind.)
We've seen Udo Boltz and Steve Larsen at IM - from pro cycling.
and we'd really loooovve to see a TdF winner ride an IM at or near his prime.
I doubt if there is a world class marathoner that could do IM. They'd all drown or cramp out on the bike as they have no quads.
So lance is our next best bet for a wonderful surprise watching a pro in a cross-over sport.
Go, Lance!

PoC

"Pain doesn't last, chicks dig scars, glory is forever!"
- Shane Falco.

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gfd posted 1 year ago.

The ESPN interview is the first time I have heard him say that triathlon might be an option. It seems his biggest concern with the marathon is time available for training due to travel and other time committments. Maybe a tri would be possible if his schedule changes. I hope he does it. I also hope to see him near the finish tomorrow.

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jdav0520 posted 1 year ago.

PrinceofClydes;55643 wrote:
We've seen Olympic Gold medalists in swimming at IM distance - as rabbits. (as untouchable rabbits, mind.)
We've seen Udo Boltz and Steve Larsen at IM - from pro cycling.
and we'd really loooovve to see a TdF winner ride an IM at or near his prime.
I doubt if there is a world class marathoner that could do IM. They'd all drown or cramp out on the bike as they have no quads.
So lance is our next best bet for a wonderful surprise watching a pro in a cross-over sport.
Go, Lance!

PoC

So what you're saying is only Pro Cyclists can compete at IM. You're assuming an awful lot there dude...

"The faster you run, the quicker you'll be done."

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christri25 posted 1 year ago.

jdav0520;55665 wrote:
So what you're saying is only Pro Cyclists can compete at IM. You're assuming an awful lot there dude...

no i think he was saying that a pro marathon runner would have trouble at IM .... i agree.

Chris

``It's not as if I'm going to sit around and be a fat slob,''
Lance Armstrong 2005

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jdav0520 posted 1 year ago.

Hm, yeah, you're probably right, because i'm sure no pro marathoner has ever been in a pool or on a bike.

"The faster you run, the quicker you'll be done."

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cayman posted 1 year ago.

Lance in at @ 2:59:35, 1:28:57 half; negative split on the 2nd half, sort of.

That's a pretty good day.

john
Pain is inevitable. Suffering is optional.

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gfd posted 1 year ago.

He had a great day if the type of training plan he says he followed was true. The second half of the sourse is hillier than the first.

I ran into Lance and his group at mile 2 and was within 5 seconds of him through mile 16, when I started having some issues and had to slow a little. He was getting an awesome reception from the crowd. He also had to deal with some nasty exhaust from the camera bike and the police motorcycle escort. For the most part runners left him and his group alone, but a few yelled things and tried to get on camera. No incidents to speak of though. Perfect weather to run a marathon in.