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The Men - Kona odds-on favorites
This report filed - October 18, 2006
By Timothy Carlson

The men

With Peter Reid retired and Tim DeBoom out with injury, Luc Van Lierde hobbled by an Achilles injury, Thomas Hellriegel off form, and Jurgen Zack turned 40 and hit with a drug positive he blames on contaminated supplements, this really is the new era for men at Kona.

Normann Stadler - 7-2

After last year's two flat tires, the bee sting and the operatic frustration of heaving his offending bike into the lava fields and the sobbing by the defending champion ranks high in Kona meltdowns. And when Normann Stadler fell out of the top 10 late in the run at the European Championships in Frankfurt, there was plenty of evidence for the short-sighted to cross him off the contenders list and consign him to the over-the-hill bin. Don't fall for it. Instead, look at Stadler's stunning 4:22 bike split - four minutes faster than anyone else - after TWO harrowing crashes in the rain at Frankfurt, write off his crash-induced, adrenaline-spiked falloff to 11th on the run, and remember that his run has much improved since his 2004 Ironman victory including a super-fast half marathon at Marc Herremans classic last year. With the passion harnessed and no flats, Stadler is the only man who can break away on the bike and hold on for the run. I think he will do it.

Cameron Brown - 4-1

The quiet, reliable Kiwi who can run 2:45 like clockwork everywhere else in the world but falls into the ordinary category in Kona's heat, is due at Kona. His two seconds (2001 and 2005) and two thirds (2002 and 2003) at Kona marked him as the most consistent male performer in the 21st Century. Previously Kiwi Brown has never been able to overcome a slight weakness on the bike to win. But after signing on with an Olympic velodrome and road-savvy coach, Brownie's speed and power on two wheels have ramped up enough to scare the rest of the field. After a breakthrough 2:50:13 run at Kona last year and a race-best 2:48:17 at Frankfurt to overcome a strong field and a bad bike crash to finally win an Ironman away from his Kiwi home, Brown finally has the quick enough swim (50:30) strong bike and run together to win the Big Pineapple.

Faris Al-Sultan - 5-1

This graceful, multicultural of Iraqi and German heritage has the demeanor of dominant tennis star Roger Federer and the classic all-around strength of Ironman champions. His symmetrical rise from 7th in 2003 to 3rd in 2004 to 1st in 2005 mirrored Tim DeBoom's climb to the top from 1999 through 2001. The former long-distance swimmer makes his top-three Ironman swim a weapon when backed by a top five bike and a mid-to-low 2:50 run. But there's the rub. Al-Sultan's best run is vulnerable to anyone who can deliver a Mark Allen-Dave Scott old-style, mid- to low-2:40 run that hasn't been seen in a while at Kona. This year, Al-Sultan relaxed through a 5th place finish at Ironman South Africa, and delivered a run-down-from-behind (2:51:30 to the winner's 2:44:54 marathon) second overall to Chris McCormack at Quelle Challenge Roth. Does that signal a slide, or a confident Dave Scott approach to put all his chips on one day at Kona? Did Al-Sultan really defy all preconceptions and win Ironman Hawaii on the swim with his 49:54 to Cam Brown's 52:23 and bike (4:25:24 to Brown's 4:33:08)? The guess here is that compared to Brown's and Stadler's and Chris McCormack's on-a-mission intensity, this cosmopolitan Munich-based gentleman who donated lots of his time to boosting the sport, Al-Sultan is due for a slight sophomore slump.

Rutger Beke - 6-1

The young Belgian roared back from a successful fight to clear his name from a false positive at Ironman Hawaii in 2004 with a fourth place finish at Kona last year. A modest 3rd place finish at Ironman Lake Placid, where he redlined the first lap of the run then hung on for a 2:57 and third place may signal impatience which can be overcome in the final four weeks of Kona training - or a fall from Kona podium-ready fitness.

Chris McCormack - 7-1

Actually, this prediction is just splitting the difference between his two probable and incompatible outcomes - blow up again in the heat and pressure, or vault to what seems to be his rightful place as a true contender for Ironman's sacred crown. If Kona were not so unique and early season finishes essentially untranslatable, McCormack would be a formidable odds-on co-favorite. With his fifth straight Ironman Australia win, his defeat of Faris Al-Sultan down the stretch in Roth with a Kona-winning-worthy 2:44 marathon, and his smashing wins at the Honu and Ironman UK 70.3 races, Macca is a sure-shot juggernaut on paper. Can Macca come fully loaded, or will the excitable boy come worn out with his own exuberance? His 2:49 finishing marathon for 6th place last year hints at the maturity he needs to be great, almost overcoming his dismal swim. Or will he forever remain the case study that proves that Kona is different from every other Ironman on this planet.

Cam Widoff - 8-1

The surest top ten finisher at Kona, the Wildman supplanted Tim DeBoom as America's best Ironman last year when he learned to bike hard and maintain a low 2:50 run. Run speed and newly fearsome great bike in his 2nd place finish to short course star Craig Alexander at races like the 5430 half signal a possible breakthrough to the Kona podium.

Eneko Llanos - 9-1

This current Xterra World Champion is not allergic to pavement, witnessed by his 2003 ITU long course world championship win in Ibiza (where he and Faris Al-Sultan broke away on the bike), and his 2006 ambitious warm-ups - a second at 2005 Ironman Western Australia and close third at 2006 Ironman Austria (behind brother Hektor Llanos!) This super-talented, heat-loving Spaniard has the capability for a to 46-minute Ironman swim, a 4:33 bike and a 2:51 run. Can he put them together?

Luke Bell - 10-1

The young Aussie reclaimed his golden promise ignited by his 5th at Kona in 2003 with whip-fast wins this year at Ironman California 70.3 and Buffalo Springs Lake, plus a strong second place finish at Ironman Brazil. The supremely talented Aussie still has to prove he has the iron to finish on top at a big Ironman. After all, Oscar Galindez ran Bell's lukewarm 2:57 marathon down to take the win from the still-growing young Aussie, and last year's 3:00:08 Kona marathon just won't cut it. Can Luke answer the bell for Kona glory? Tune in.

Michael Lovato - 11-1

A big win in fast time (8:20:56 - tons faster than Faris Al-Sultan's breakthrough win the year before) against top contenders at Ironman Arizona (Spencer Smith, Tim DeBoom) showed Lovato is ready to make another big career surge when it counts. But a 7th at Baja 70.3 and a lackluster fourth at Buffalo Springs Lake 70.3, well in the dust of Luke Bell) raise questions.

Spencer Smith 12-1

Following a sparkling Olympic distance career with two World Championships and tons of big wins at North American non-drafting urban classics, Spencer took on Ironman after the death of his beloved father Bill eight years ago and took a promising 5th place. After years off successfully fighting a false drug positive, Smith came back and won Ironman Florida and Ironman Brazil. Then the bottom fell out with a string of accidents and injuries that only lifted this spring with a strong and swift second at Ironman Arizona. The mature Smith now makes smart choices on race day and his still-formidable talents exert a siren call for this longshot-addicted Kona oddsmaker.

Chris Lieto - 14-1

This oft-injured bike prodigy has proved he can win at Canada and Wisconsin, and run faster than expected to hold on to big leads. But his just under 3-hours best marathon won't get things done at Kona. His fast swim and killer bike, however, will provide company and fuel for an Al-Sultan and Stadler bike breakaway.

Stealth candidates

Alexander Taubert - 15-1

For years, this tall, quiet German saves his best for last and scores top 10 and top five finishes at Kona, including a fourth place in 2004, a fifth in 2002 and a ninth in 1997.

Viktor Zyemtsev - 17-1

If this super-tough 33-year-old Ukranian didn't admit he hated racing at Kona with its heat and wind, his four Ironman wins, sub-50 minute swim, 4:33 bike and 2:41 to 2:49 Ironman marathon would mark him as a dangerous all-around Kona podium threat. Has he gotten over his Kona antipathy and his self-styled jinx?

Tom Soderdahl - 18-1 this flying Finn was edged out for seventh by a flying Raynard Tissink last year at Kona and placed a strong second to Zyemtsev at Coeur d'Alene in 2005. Can he rise to Pauli Kiuru status and quit his winter job as an electrician at age 34?

Raynard Tissink - 19-1

This solid 32-yewar-old South African has won Ironman titles at Austria and South Africa (2005), Canada (2003) and Korea (2002). He has a strong bike (4:26 at Austria and 4:31 last year at Kona.) But what does he lack? His run is good but no great - his reliable mid-2:50 marathon with a 2:49 best doesn't set Kona on fire, and a first pack swim is out of his reach.

Oscar Galindez 20-1 The bull of the Argentine Pampas, an Olympian at the short distances, can always beat McCormack in South America and has learned to run in the mid-2:50s and outran the star-in-the-making Luke Bell in Brazil.

Patrick Vernay 22-1

This New Caledonian Frenchman is a very very good bet for a top-15 finish.

Crazy longshots

Bryan Rhodes 25-1 New Zealand's Rhodesy has killed in the heat (two wins in Malaysia) and in the cold ( a towering performance 25-minute margin of victory at the incredibly cold, rainy and brutally hilly Ironman UK in 2005. But this year, he got whacked in the head by jet ski at Eagleman 70.3 and hit by a truck training before Ironman UK. Swift swimmer, good biker and possessor of six sub-three hour Ironman marathons, this year Rhodesy got unusual injury-spawned rest for Kona.

Francisco Pontano 28-1 This 31-year-old Spaniard snuck in ahead of many great competitors to take 9th at Kona. Call me shallow, but I don't see continued upward career arc.

Marino Van Hoenacker 30-1

Belgian's 8:07:59 win at Ironman Austria sported a Kona-ready 47-minute swim, 4:27 bike and 2:49 run. A paper tiger coming to Hawaii, vulnerably human in the heat and wind of Kona.

Mitchell Anderson 33-1 This 31-year-old Aussie had a lousy 58-minute swim, a stellar 4:27 bike and faded with a 3:07 run last year at Kona. Despite excellent perfomance elsewhere, no chance at Kona

All time Kona greats whose time, sadly, may have passed

Thomas Hellriegel 88-1 The 1997 Ironman champion, second place finiher in 1995 and 1996,and winner of six Ironman championships once evoked fear and loathing by competitors who called him Hell on Wheels. Lingering injuries have not allowed Hellriegel to train with his wonted ferocity.

Luc Van Lierde 100-1

Ten years ago, this Belgian superstar emerged from a second place at the ITU short course world championships to set a still-standing course record in his Kona debut with a still-unattainable 8:04:08. After that splash, Van Lierde set a still standing Ironman distance world best of 7:50:27 at Roth and took a second at Kona in 1998 and a final win in 1999. An infection that ate away at his Achilles has left Van Lierde nobly chasing men he once effortlessly left in his dust. No longer the most dangerously talented Ironman ever, now he is a paragon of sportsmanship.

Tons of other great triathletes I've ignored

Someone not on this list will arise and do great things and embarrass me. 1-

"I'm shocked,shocked I tell you, to find out there is gambling going on inside this establishment!"

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