Sounds pretty good but after Chris Lieto's performance in his last race I wouldnt count him out. I am definetly looking forward to it.

Are you sure YOU don't have an issue with his glutes?? :D
BBB

Definitely a tough call this year. The field is deep and many of the newer guys coming on strong. I'm going to go with:
Stadler
Reid
DeBoom
Sultan
Beke

but don't forget McCormack who just had a great half iron distance race in 100 degree weather, Brown who won New Zealand again, and of course Lieto :)

On the women's side I think Major is the big contender this year. She didn't get much coverage last year because she came in fourth (changed to 3rd after Kraft was DQ'd). But she started the run with ,I believe, a 7 minute penalty and worked her way back through the field. She won Arizona and has been pretty quite since then. Ramping up for this race. That said, not picking Badmann is tough, she can be puking on the side of the road and still win.

Reid's had some issues this year. He's always been my favorite, so I'm hoping top 5, if not first for him. But we'll see. It'd be nice to see what DeBoom pulls out as well since we know he's still burning about that stupid kidney stone last year.

McCormack seems to keep getting his butt handed to him at Kona by the Island. I have a silly theory about this. Basically, he said he wasn't afraid of the island and it's multiple factors at his first race. He hasn't done well at Kona ever since. I think Pele is showing him fear. But that's only if you believe in all of the island spirit stuff. He is more of an a$$ to me than Lessing. But I do agree with Beads that Lessing is a bit wussy.

So top 5 men
Reid
DeBoom
Beke
Brown, Cam (consistently 3rd)
Maca

top 5 women
badmann
fuhr
gollnick
major
bentley

good article here about the women's race: http://vnews.ironmanlive.com/vnews/topstories/1128442279/

Maca's just a kid, he'll learn. Can't deny his talent and how hard he works, but that is true of all of the top pros, men and women. And Oz is a tough place to be a top contender - they eat their young! So you'd have to be a little cocky just to survive there.

Basing this on absolutely nothing, I'm picking.
Norman & Nataha to repeat.

Major sounds good, but Kona is about experience (yes, I remember Luc).

I'd actually like to see Maca and Major win. It would shift the rivalries around and the Oz is due. It's been a while since Welchie won. They have had so much talent for so many years down there.

Natasha
Kate
Lisa
Heather Fuhr
Desiree Ficker?

Norman
Peter
Faris
Maca
Tim

but what the heck do I know?
I'd have a better chance predicting the weather!
Let's say, hot, dry, windy, oh, and big swells on the swim,
which an ex-Olympic swimmer who can't bike or run will win. :)

Geoff

Fernanda, anyone?

MEN
1. Norman Stadler
2. Cam Brown (GO KIWI's :D )

WOMAN:
1. Kate Major
2. Natasha Badmann

I heard Lori Bowden will be back next year.

Anyway,

I don't think the mens field is going to let anybody get too far ahead on the bike this year.
They will keep an eye on Norman, but that could influence the run.

Should be interesting.

I'm surprised no one has given Michelli Jones a nod except me.. She has been impressive this year with wins at Caliman 4:19 (1:22 half marathon split) and beat Heather Fuhr and Kate Major at Ralphs. I know even though she won IMF last year even though she faded on the marathon. She had issues with nutrition that day consuming more food and drink that what her body could handle. I think if she has worked out the nutrition kinks, she can easily finish top 2 in Kona..

I think Kona should be interesting because of the strategies that worked last year, and because of the mix of competitors.

Looking forward to it.

I'm also interested to see how Michellie Jones does (as she also raced in a local sprint series I did -- won it of course -- and was nice and helpful on top of it)!

Personally, I always hope for the ones I like for sentimental reasons -- both deBooms, any Lietos that make it, Jones...

I also can't wait and wish the whole thing was shown live here! I'm jealous of my friend who left today for HI and is going to watch it!

Thought I would post this.
BBB

Men’s Kona Preview
By Kevin Mackinnon for Ironmanlive.com on Fri, Oct 7th 2005 (10:09 PM).

If Normann Stadler puts together a ride like he did a year ago at the Ford Ironman Triathlon World Championship, this year’s race will be over by the time he makes the turnaround at Hawi. It’s doubtful the best Ironman athletes in the world will let the German do that again!

Last year the world’s best male triathletes knew exactly what Stadler was doing, and still couldn’t avoid seeing him come off the bike 21 minutes ahead.

That’s how much eventual second place finisher Peter Reid trailed the German as he started the marathon, and even though he ran 11 minutes faster than his buddy, he was still 10 minutes behind at the end of the day.

Stadler’s confidence has only grown since his impressive win in Kona last year. He got rid of the “can’t race on his home turf� moniker he’d long had when he decimated the competitive field assembled at Ironman Germany in Frankfurt this summer.

We can’t expect that the rest of the field letting Stadler get that far ahead on the bike, though. Reid has never defended an Ironman World Championship title, but he has won three of them. Expect the Canadian to be hungry and eager to claim his fourth title this year.

If for some reason Stadler struggles on race day, one would expect that one of his countrymen will be ready to take up the challenge for the win. Last year there were no less than eight German competitors in the top 16, including Kai Hundertmarck, who was the top age group competitor in the race.

One of those countrymen, Faris Al Sultan, led the “chase group� in last year’s race during the bike – this year he won Ironman Arizona in impressive style. He will certainly be one to watch through the day.

Al Sultan will be joined by a group of impressive riders likely to chase Stadler along the Queen K. South African Raynard Tissink has been rode up a storm on his way to two Ironman titles this year (Ironman South Africa and Ironman Austria). Torbjorn Sindballe is an incredible cyclist who might also be in the hunt through the ride. Tom Evans won two Ironman races last year – he’s a great swimmer and cyclist, too. Alexander Taubert can ride with almost anyone, as can a fit Rutger Beke, or Mitchell Anderson, who led off the bike at Ironman Switzerland this year.

Tim DeBoom has won the Ford Ironman World Championship twice, and is all-too-familiar with the tactic of staying with the main marathon threats and letting it all hang out during the run. If he can find himself starting the run with Reid and/ or Ironman New Zealand champ (five times over!) Cameron Brown, DeBoom will also be a major player in the championship.

DeBoom, Reid and Brown are hardly the only men capable of blistering through the marathon. Olivier Bernhard ran a 2:41 marathon in Kona a few years ago, and would love to repeat that performance in his final Ironman race before retiring.

All of the above-mentioned athletes have all placed well in Kona in the past. There are also a few men who could end up being in contention to win or place well if things go their way on the Big Island come October 15.

Include in that list one Chris McCormack, who is seemingly unbeatable everywhere else, but appears to have convinced himself he can’t race in the heat.

Macca spent a month training in Kona recently in the hopes of acclimatizing himself … could this be his year to break through?

If McCormack manages to figure out the heat, how exciting will things be if running next to him during the closing stages of the marathon we have another World Short Course champ, Simon Lessing. Lessing hasn’t managed to have a good Ironman race since he won Ford Ironman USA Lake Placid in impressive style more than a year ago. Like Macca, Lessing has what it takes to win – the question is whether he can make that happen after a tough race at Ironman Canada just five weeks ago.

Until last year, no one had won the Ford Ironman World Championship after taking a huge lead off the bike since John Howard managed the feat in 1981. Sure, Thomas Hellriegel led off the bike when he won in 1997, but not by 21 minutes or more! This year’s race promises to be an interesting one as Normann Stadler tries to repeat his winning formula, and a whole bunch of very talented men try to make sure he doesn’t.

I got to go with the Americans, first Tim Deboom regardless of what happened in 03, and of course my local boy Chris Lieto. Go Chris!!!!

pancho

Does anyone know when this is going to be televised? I know last year it was in January. I cant find a listing anywhere. I still say if Chris has a good day he could pull it off especially if he rides up there with Stadler.

Peter
Norman
Faris
Beke
Tom Evans

Lisa Bentley
Natasha
Heather
Kate Major
Ficker

Did I call it or what.. No, but seriously, she gave a gutsy performance but who knew Natascha could run..

So I picked Norman and Natascha.

One out of two ain't bad - and the one I picked was superb!

PoC