I asked Matt to write something. He did have some concerns because he is coaching some athletes. I think you are correct in his motives not to disrespect his or other athletes. I think if you follow the other hype written you can get a sense of whom he's speaking about without him naming names. I think Chris has an excellent shot at top 3, his dark horses in my opinion would be those like mckenzie, tyler, linsey corbin, it's so deep on the men's side with europeans it could be anyone. On the newcomers, terrenzo and carfrae would be those I'd watch for.

I think as well, in a sense this race is too unpredictable. Every year it doesn't really play out how everyone else predicts. Who would predict Normann winning, or Mormann having a flat, or Michellie bowing out, or Natasha crashing, or Macca not winning yet, or Macca pulling out, or Chrissie Who winning...

Basically I think all you can really count on is there will be an aussie in the top three on the men's and chrissie will beat a lot of the pro men... :)

As much fun as predicting winners is, I think it's a waste of time and energy.
Sports commentaters on TV do it because they really have nothing else to say and perforce, the viewers can get sucked in to the same meaningless prognostications. Plus, oddsmakers who profit by our, mostly fruitless, guessing about winners encourage this intellectual thumb-twiddling.

Predicting the wind direction and speed would be more useful but even with satellite imagery and a ouija board, pundits seldom get that right.
There are just too many variables affecting athlete's health, and then there are mechanicals: thorns on the Queen K, derailleur cables snapping (Macca), bonking despite decades of IM experience: PNF, dehydration: Chris Legh, and so on.

As Paul noted above, wildly unpredictable winners have emerged. remember Luc Lierde? Rookies aren't supposed to win at Kona.

And that is why we watch. I, for one. will be glued to Ironmanlive.com on Sunday,
precisely BECAUSE you can't predict a winner based on anything reliable. If we could, we wouldn't hold races.

I think ultimately that that is why I LIKE watching sports.

PoC
hoping for a great race on Sunday.

Thanks Quincy, I appreciate your mentioning it. I wouldn't want to miss it for some silly reason.

I really did know that, but I have got into the habit of thinking Raceday-Sunday from the ones I've done. It's all good now.

I've read Matt's article and sadly, it really does read like a horoscope - it could apply to anyone regardless of their birthdate. Being couched in generalities, caveats and abstractions. He didn't just sit on the fence, citing the most likely close challenges for the titles, he neglected even to tell us where the fence was.

Never mind. The real point of pre-race articles is to promote the event itself as happening, giving it's time, date, venue and a who's who of competitors, telling us why we should watch, but in this case, it's like preaching to the choir.

PoC